Hey folks, big news out of California politics: A ballot measure to slash two big local taxes just qualified for November’s vote. Backed by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association (the Prop 13 crew), it’s dubbed the “Local Taxpayer Protection Act.” It caps municipal transfer taxes on home sales at a tiny 0.05% and makes it tougher (think two-thirds voter approval) for future local tax hikes to pass.
This isn’t just some statewide tweak—it’s laser-focused on Los Angeles and its infamous “mansion tax,” Measure ULA. That 2023 voter-approved levy slaps 4% on sales over $5 million (5.5% above $10 million, adjusted for inflation). It’s raked in over $1 billion already, funding $360 million in affordable housing last week alone. Sounds great, right? Not if you’re a developer watching new projects grind to a halt.
Why LA’s Mansion Tax is the Real Villain Here
Critics—from real estate bigwigs to academics—say ULA has tanked construction citywide. We’re talking fewer apartments, condos, mixed-use builds, and even commercial spots, not just mega-mansions. Compared to nearby cities? LA’s lagging hard. Howard Jarvis president Jon Coupal calls it “the redwood tree that broke the camel’s back.” The new measure would gut ULA’s rates (100 times higher than the cap) overnight if it passes.
Cities like Berkeley, San Mateo, and Alameda would feel the pinch too—the Legislative Analyst’s Office pegs statewide losses at a couple billion bucks a year (straight savings for taxpayers). With LA being ground zero due to its contentious Mansion Tax.
Polls aren’t looking great for the tax choppers: 57% of likely voters Noped it based on the ballot title, including most Republicans. Still, it’s on track unless deals get cut.
The Backroom Bargaining Game Begins
California election rules let sponsors pull qualified measures before late June. That’s prime time for Sacramento horse-trading. Remember 2018? Soda giants yanked a similar anti-tax measure after Dems passed a 13-year soda tax ban.
Last year, SoCal Dems, LA Mayor Karen Bass, and ex-Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg pushed a bill to exempt new apartments from ULA and loosen spending rules—but only if Jarvis pulled their prop. It flopped amid pushback. Now, with the measure official, expect frantic calls.
Even LA’s city council is stirring: Councilmember Nithya Raman (mayoral hopeful eyeing Bass’s seat) wanted ULA tweaks on the June ballot. They punted to a committee instead, which is mulling exemptions for nonprofits, easier fund-matching, and more. Some changes might skip voters; others could hit November’s ballot right alongside Jarvis’s bomb.
Can Anyone Fix This Mess Locally?
Pro-ULA folks want tweaks, not trash-it-all. Tenant groups, some developers, and unions back city staff ideas. A “Mend It, Don’t End It” coalition (led by ex-homelessness czar Sarah Dusseault) pushes local reforms to head off the state-level nuke. “Show we can drive change ourselves,” she says.
But Jarvis insists: No deals. “They want to eliminate taxes,” says ULA defender Joe Donlin. Coupal agrees—their side wants structural change, not bandaids. Funding? Heavy hitters like the California Business Roundtable and LA real estate players are footing the bill. Campaigns cost millions—will they blink?
Sacramento and LA Polls are betting on it. Stay tuned; this could get wild.
Source : This story was originally published by CalMatters – Ben Christopher
Source : Daylight San Diego
Link: https://www.daylightsandiego.org/a-plan-to-cut-a-california-tax-is-going-to-voters-why-las-mansion-tax-is-at-the-center-of-it/
